Matchday Briefing

What we would back today

No matches in the leagues we cover today, so there is nothing to weigh — an empty board rather than a day we looked at and found nothing on. Nothing will fill in here later today; the next date with fixtures is where to look.

The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.

We recommend; we never guarantee. The rule behind these has never been tested. Our calibration is measured on 8,926 historical matches, but that corpus holds no prices — so there is no past market to have beaten, and nothing has ever checked whether an edge we claim is real. Only 17 of our published forecasts have settled against a captured price. That count is the only evidence there will ever be, and it is slow: at roughly seven recommendations a day it takes about two months to tell a five-point edge from noise, and the better part of a year for the two-point minimum we actually use. Nothing here will be settled soon — see accuracy.