About Matchday Briefing

What this is

Matchday Briefing turns one statistical model into a plain read on every match we cover: what is likely to happen, how sure we are, and where that sits against the bookmakers' own price. It exists because most football "predictions" online are either a paid tip with no record behind it or a confident guess dressed up as analysis. This is the opposite of both — a single, refit-as-it-goes model whose accuracy you can check line by line, and whose forecasts are sealed before kick-off so none can be quietly rewritten after the result is known.

How the model works — a hierarchical Bayesian goals model, how it is fit and calibrated — is set out in full on the methodology page.

Who makes it

Matchday Briefing is built and maintained by Charles Muchiri, who designs the model, runs the fits, and is responsible for everything published here. There is no tips desk and no anonymous "team of experts" — one person, one method, and a public record that either backs the claims up or does not. If a forecast is wrong, it stays on the record as wrong.

How we hold ourselves to account

The whole argument for trusting a number here is that we show our work and our score:

• The accuracy record — our calibration published unedited, the passes and the failures alike, scored against matches the model never saw and against the market on what we actually forecast.
• The forecast ledger — every forecast, sealed in a tamper-evident chain before the match is played, so a number cannot be changed after the fact and then claimed as a call we made.
• The coverage matrix — an honest account of which competitions we cover well and which we do not, rather than implying we know every league equally.

What we will never do

• Sell tips or "sure bets". There is no such thing, and anyone charging for one is selling certainty they do not have.
• Claim to beat the market. The bookmakers' price is sharp; we show it next to ours so you can judge the disagreement, not because we promise to be right more often than it is.
• Quietly edit a forecast. Everything is sealed before kick-off. The record is the record.
• Pretend every match is worth a bet. When the honest answer is that the edge is not there, the page says so.

A word on betting

Everything here is a probability, not advice, and forecasting a match is not the same as telling you to bet on it. Betting carries real financial risk. It is for adults (18+) only, and you should never stake more than you can comfortably afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being fun, free and confidential help is available at BeGambleAware and Gambling Therapy.