Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
Austria LustenauvSCR Altach
Austria Lustenau
SCR Altach·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Aus / SCR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Austria Lustenau down the side and SCR Altach across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 47% against 53%.
What we think
- Austria Lustenau39% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 75% against a market price of 69% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals.
Our forecast makes Austria Lustenau the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes SCR Altach the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 30%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 53% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives SCR Altach a 44% chance. Our model makes it 31%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 27% draw · 44% away
Now: 30% home · 27% draw · 44% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Austria Lustenau
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
SCR Altach
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Austria LustenauLLDWL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Austria Vienna 1–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v WSG Wattens 0–4
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sturm Graz 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Wolfsberger AC 2–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Grazer AK 1–2
SCR AltachLLLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Grazer AK 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lask Linz 0–3
- Sat 22 Aug · H v TSV Hartberg 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Sturm Graz 0–1
- Fri 7 Aug · H v WSG Wattens 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Lustenau have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Austria Lustenau's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Austria Lustenau's last 5.
- Austria Lustenau kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- SCR Altach have won 1 of their last 5.
- SCR Altach have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of SCR Altach's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of SCR Altach's last 5.
- SCR Altach kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Austria Lustenau
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
SCR Altach
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau · Referee: Stefan Ebner, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
- Our model makes Austria Lustenau the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours SCR Altach at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
- Austria Lustenau line up in a 4-1-4-1, SCR Altach in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.