Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Austria ViennavAustria Lustenau
Austria Vienna
Austria Lustenau·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Aus / Aus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Austria Vienna down the side and Austria Lustenau across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Austria Vienna61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Austria Vienna the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Austria Vienna
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Austria Lustenau
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Austria ViennaLLWLL
- Wed 2 Sep · H v WSG Wattens 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Red Bull Salzburg 1–4
- Sun 16 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Lask Linz 0–2
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Wolfsberger AC 0–3
Austria LustenauLDWLD
- Fri 28 Aug · H v WSG Wattens 0–4
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sturm Graz 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Wolfsberger AC 2–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Grazer AK 1–2
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Ried 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Austria Vienna have won 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Vienna have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Austria Vienna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Austria Vienna's last 5.
- Austria Vienna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Lustenau have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Austria Lustenau's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Austria Lustenau's last 5.
- Austria Lustenau kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Austria Vienna
Rest: 11 days · 2 matches in 14d
Austria Lustenau
Rest: 16 days · 0 matches in 14d
Generali Arena, Vienna
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Our model makes Austria Vienna the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.