Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Austria ViennavAustria Lustenau
Austria Vienna
Austria Lustenau·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Aus / Aus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Austria Vienna down the side and Austria Lustenau across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 78% against 78%.
What we think
- Austria Vienna61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Austria Vienna
Best price 1.85 at SBOThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 61% against a market price of 53% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Our forecast makes Austria Vienna the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives Austria Vienna a 53% chance. Our model makes it 61%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 25% draw · 23% away
Now: 53% home · 25% draw · 22% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Austria Vienna
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Austria Vienna
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Austria Lustenau
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Austria ViennaLLWLL
- Wed 2 Sep · H v WSG Wattens 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Red Bull Salzburg 1–4
- Sun 16 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Lask Linz 0–2
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Wolfsberger AC 0–3
Austria LustenauLDWLD
- Fri 28 Aug · H v WSG Wattens 0–4
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sturm Graz 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Wolfsberger AC 2–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Grazer AK 1–2
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Ried 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Austria Vienna have won 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Vienna have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Austria Vienna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Austria Vienna's last 5.
- Austria Vienna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Lustenau have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Austria Lustenau's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Austria Lustenau's last 5.
- Austria Lustenau kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Austria Vienna
Rest: 11 days · 2 matches in 14d
Austria Lustenau
Rest: 16 days · 0 matches in 14d
Generali Arena, Vienna · Referee: Christian-Petru Ciochirca, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Our model makes Austria Vienna the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
- Austria Vienna line up in a 3-4-2-1, Austria Lustenau in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.