Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
Grazer AKvAustria Vienna
Grazer AK
Austria Vienna·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Grazer AK and Austria Vienna finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gra / Aus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Grazer AK down the side and Austria Vienna across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 24%.
What we think
- Austria Vienna44% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Austria Vienna the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, against the market’s 47% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Austria Vienna a 38% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 28% draw · 38% away
Now: 34% home · 28% draw · 38% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Grazer AK
Confirmed · 3-1-4-2
No reported absences.
Austria Vienna
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Grazer AKWDLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v SCR Altach 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Wolfsberger AC 0–0
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Ried 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Rapid Vienna 0–8
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Austria Lustenau 2–1
Austria ViennaWLLWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Austria Lustenau 2–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v WSG Wattens 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Red Bull Salzburg 1–4
- Sun 16 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Lask Linz 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Grazer AK have won 2 of their last 5.
- Grazer AK have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Grazer AK's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Grazer AK's last 5.
- Grazer AK kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Austria Vienna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Austria Vienna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Austria Vienna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Austria Vienna's last 5.
- Austria Vienna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Grazer AK
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Austria Vienna
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Merkur-Arena, Graz · Referee: Arnes Talic, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
- Our model makes Austria Vienna the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
- Grazer AK line up in a 3-1-4-2, Austria Vienna in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.