Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
Rapid ViennavWSG Wattens
Rapid Vienna
WSG Wattens·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rap / WSG | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Rapid Vienna down the side and WSG Wattens across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 48%.
What we think
- Rapid Vienna59% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 67% against a market price of 52% — 15 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 85% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.0 goals.
Our forecast makes Rapid Vienna the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 70%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 69% — a 13 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Rapid Vienna a 70% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 70% home · 18% draw · 12% away
Now: 70% home · 18% draw · 12% away
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Rapid Vienna
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
WSG Wattens
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Rapid ViennaWLWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Wolfsberger AC 3–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Red Bull Salzburg 1–5
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Sturm Graz 3–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Grazer AK 8–0
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Ried 2–1
WSG WattensDWWLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v TSV Hartberg 2–2
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Austria Vienna 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Austria Lustenau 4–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Red Bull Salzburg 0–3
- Fri 7 Aug · A v SCR Altach 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Rapid Vienna have won 4 of their last 5.
- Rapid Vienna have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Rapid Vienna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Rapid Vienna's last 5.
- Rapid Vienna kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- WSG Wattens have won 2 of their last 5.
- WSG Wattens have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of WSG Wattens's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of WSG Wattens's last 5.
- WSG Wattens kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Rapid Vienna
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
WSG Wattens
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
Allianz Stadion, Vienna · Referee: Harald Lechner, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
- Our model makes Rapid Vienna the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 70%.
- How many goals are expected in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
- Rapid Vienna line up in a 4-2-3-1, WSG Wattens in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.