Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
Red Bull SalzburgvSturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Red / Stu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Red Bull Salzburg down the side and Sturm Graz across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Red Bull Salzburg46% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Red Bull Salzburg the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Red Bull Salzburg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Sturm Graz
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Red Bull SalzburgDWWWD
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Ried 1–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Rapid Vienna 5–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Austria Vienna 4–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v WSG Wattens 3–0
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Wolfsberger AC 1–1
Sturm GrazWLDWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Lask Linz 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Rapid Vienna 1–3
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Austria Lustenau 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v SCR Altach 1–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Red Bull Salzburg have won 3 of their last 5.
- Red Bull Salzburg have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Red Bull Salzburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Red Bull Salzburg's last 5.
- Red Bull Salzburg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sturm Graz have won 3 of their last 5.
- Sturm Graz have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sturm Graz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sturm Graz's last 5.
- Sturm Graz kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Sturm Graz
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Salzburg · Referee: Isa Simsek, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
- Our model makes Red Bull Salzburg the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
- Red Bull Salzburg line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sturm Graz in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.