Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
RiedvWolfsberger AC
Ried
Wolfsberger AC·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Ried and Wolfsberger AC finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rie / Wol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Ried down the side and Wolfsberger AC across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Wolfsberger AC44% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Wolfsberger AC the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Ried
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Wolfsberger AC
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RiedDLWLL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Red Bull Salzburg 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–3
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Grazer AK 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Lask Linz 1–4
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Rapid Vienna 1–2
Wolfsberger ACLLDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Rapid Vienna 0–3
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Lask Linz 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Grazer AK 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Austria Lustenau 1–2
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Red Bull Salzburg 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Ried have won 1 of their last 5.
- Ried have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Ried's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Ried's last 5.
- Ried kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Wolfsberger AC have won 0 of their last 5.
- Wolfsberger AC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Wolfsberger AC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wolfsberger AC's last 5.
- Wolfsberger AC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Ried
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Wolfsberger AC
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Josko Arena, Reed · Referee: Alexander Harkam, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
- Our model makes Wolfsberger AC the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
- Ried line up in a 3-4-2-1, Wolfsberger AC in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.