Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
Sturm GrazvLask Linz
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Sturm Graz and Lask Linz finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Stu / Las | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sturm Graz down the side and Lask Linz across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 43%.
What we think
- Sturm Graz50% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 68% against a market price of 57% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 75% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.8 goals.
Our forecast makes Sturm Graz the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Lask Linz the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 27%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 65% — a 11 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Lask Linz a 50% chance. Our model makes it 25%.
2Market
Open: 27% home · 23% draw · 50% away
Now: 27% home · 23% draw · 50% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sturm Graz
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Lask Linz
Confirmed · 3-4-1-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sturm GrazLDWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Rapid Vienna 1–3
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Austria Lustenau 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v SCR Altach 1–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v TSV Hartberg 2–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v WSG Wattens 1–1
Lask LinzWWWWW
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Wolfsberger AC 3–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v SCR Altach 3–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Ried 4–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Austria Vienna 2–0
- Fri 31 Jul · H v Grazer AK 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sturm Graz have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sturm Graz have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 1 of Sturm Graz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sturm Graz's last 5.
- Sturm Graz kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Lask Linz have won 5 of their last 5.
- Lask Linz have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Lask Linz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lask Linz's last 5.
- Lask Linz kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sturm Graz
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Lask Linz
Rest: 12 days · 1 match in 14d
Merkur-Arena, Graz · Referee: Sebastian Gishamer, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
- Our model makes Sturm Graz the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market instead favours Lask Linz at 50%.
- How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
- Sturm Graz line up in a 4-4-2, Lask Linz in a 3-4-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.