Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
WSG WattensvTSV Hartberg
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| WSG / TSV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, WSG Wattens down the side and TSV Hartberg across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 29%.
What we think
- TSV Hartberg40% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes TSV Hartberg the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes WSG Wattens the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 27%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (52%).
For comparison, the market gives WSG Wattens a 46% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away
Now: 46% home · 27% draw · 27% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from TSV Hartberg
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
WSG Wattens
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
TSV Hartberg
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
WSG WattensWWLLD
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Austria Vienna 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Austria Lustenau 4–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Red Bull Salzburg 0–3
- Fri 7 Aug · A v SCR Altach 1–3
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Sturm Graz 1–1
TSV HartbergWWLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ried 3–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v SCR Altach 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Austria Vienna 0–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Sturm Graz 0–2
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Red Bull Salzburg 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- WSG Wattens have won 2 of their last 5.
- WSG Wattens have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of WSG Wattens's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of WSG Wattens's last 5.
- WSG Wattens kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- TSV Hartberg have won 2 of their last 5.
- TSV Hartberg have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of TSV Hartberg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of TSV Hartberg's last 5.
- TSV Hartberg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
WSG Wattens
Rest: 11 days · 1 match in 14d
TSV Hartberg
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck · Referee: Achim Untergasser, Austria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
- Our model makes TSV Hartberg the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours WSG Wattens at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
- WSG Wattens line up in a 3-4-2-1, TSV Hartberg in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.