Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 6
Club Brugge IIvKAA Gent II
Club Brugge II
KAA Gent II·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Club Brugge II and KAA Gent II finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Clu / KAA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Club Brugge II down the side and KAA Gent II across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 55% against 59%.
What we think
- Club Brugge II42% · Match result
- Over 2.555% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Club Brugge II the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 55%, against the market’s 59% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Club Brugge II a 51% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 26% draw · 29% away
Now: 51% home · 24% draw · 25% away
Moved +6pp — the market moved towards Club Brugge II
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Club Brugge II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
KAA Gent II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Club Brugge IIDLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Liège 4–4
- Sat 5 Sep · H v AS Eupen 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Patro Eisden 2–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Seraing United 3–2
KAA Gent IILDWL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Dender 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v RSC Anderlecht II 2–2
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Sporting Hasselt 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Beerschot VA 0–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Club Brugge II have won 2 of their last 4.
- Club Brugge II have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Club Brugge II's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Club Brugge II's last 4.
- Club Brugge II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- KAA Gent II have won 1 of their last 4.
- KAA Gent II have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of KAA Gent II's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of KAA Gent II's last 4.
- KAA Gent II kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Club Brugge II
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
KAA Gent II
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Club Brugge II vs KAA Gent II?
- Our model makes Club Brugge II the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in Club Brugge II vs KAA Gent II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 55%, and under 2.5 at 45%.
- Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs KAA Gent II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.