Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 6
Francs BorainsvRSC Anderlecht II
Francs Borains
RSC Anderlecht II·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Francs Borains and RSC Anderlecht II finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Fra / RSC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Francs Borains down the side and RSC Anderlecht II across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 58% against 57%.
What we think
- RSC Anderlecht II37% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes RSC Anderlecht II the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Francs Borains the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 25%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, which is what the market has it at too (57%).
For comparison, the market gives Francs Borains a 50% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 25% draw · 25% away
Now: 50% home · 25% draw · 25% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Francs Borains
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
RSC Anderlecht II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Francs BorainsWWLW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Lokeren-Temse 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Excelsior Virton 1–0
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sporting Hasselt 0–1
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Liège 2–1
RSC Anderlecht IILDLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Lokeren-Temse 2–6
- Sat 5 Sep · A v KAA Gent II 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Beerschot VA 0–1
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Excelsior Virton 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Patro Eisden 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Francs Borains have won 3 of their last 4.
- Francs Borains have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 2 of Francs Borains's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Francs Borains's last 4.
- Francs Borains kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
- RSC Anderlecht II have won 0 of their last 5.
- RSC Anderlecht II have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of RSC Anderlecht II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of RSC Anderlecht II's last 5.
- RSC Anderlecht II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Francs Borains
Rest: 12 days · 1 match in 14d
RSC Anderlecht II
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Robert Urbain, Boussu
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
- Our model makes RSC Anderlecht II the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours Francs Borains at 50%.
- How many goals are expected in Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs RSC Anderlecht II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.