Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 5
LiègevClub Brugge II
Liège
Club Brugge II·
4 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Liège and Club Brugge II finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Liè / Clu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Liège down the side and Club Brugge II across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 57%.
What we think
- Liège45% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Liège the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 57% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Liège a 49% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 25% draw · 27% away
Now: 49% home · 25% draw · 27% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Liège
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Club Brugge II
Confirmed · 4-1-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LiègeDLWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v K. Lierse S.K. 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Dender 1–2
- Sun 23 Aug · A v KRC Genk II 3–2
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Francs Borains 1–2
Club Brugge IILWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v AS Eupen 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Patro Eisden 2–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Seraing United 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Liège have won 1 of their last 4.
- Liège have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Liège's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Liège's last 4.
- Liège kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Club Brugge II have won 2 of their last 3.
- Club Brugge II have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of Club Brugge II's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Club Brugge II's last 3.
- Club Brugge II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Liège
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Club Brugge II
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade de Rocourt
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Liège vs Club Brugge II?
- Our model makes Liège the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Liège vs Club Brugge II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Liège vs Club Brugge II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Liège vs Club Brugge II?
- Liège line up in a 4-1-4-1, Club Brugge II in a 4-1-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.