Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 6
Lokeren-TemsevExcelsior Virton
Lokeren-Temse
Excelsior Virton·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.6–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Lokeren-Temse and Excelsior Virton finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Lok / Exc | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lokeren-Temse down the side and Excelsior Virton across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Lokeren-Temse54% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Lokeren-Temse the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lokeren-Temse
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Excelsior Virton
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Lokeren-TemseWLLWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v RSC Anderlecht II 6–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Francs Borains 0–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v KRC Genk II 2–4
- Fri 21 Aug · H v AS Eupen 2–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Seraing United 2–0
Excelsior VirtonWLWW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v KRC Genk II 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Francs Borains 0–1
- Fri 21 Aug · A v RSC Anderlecht II 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v K. Lierse S.K. 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lokeren-Temse have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lokeren-Temse have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Lokeren-Temse's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lokeren-Temse's last 5.
- Lokeren-Temse kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Excelsior Virton have won 3 of their last 4.
- Excelsior Virton have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 2 of Excelsior Virton's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Excelsior Virton's last 4.
- Excelsior Virton kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Lokeren-Temse
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Excelsior Virton
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Daknamstadion, Lokeren
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Lokeren-Temse vs Excelsior Virton?
- Our model makes Lokeren-Temse the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Lokeren-Temse vs Excelsior Virton?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Excelsior Virton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.