Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 5

Patro EisdenvAS Eupen

·

1 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–01.4–1.0 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Patro Eisden and AS Eupen finish on some other score 66% of the time.

Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.

Probability of each scoreline, Patro Eisden goals down the side, AS Eupen across
Pat / AS 012345
098420.40.1
11213620.50.1
299520.40.1
34420.70.20.0
4120.80.30.10.0
50.40.40.20.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Patro Eisden down the side and AS Eupen across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 74%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 49%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 27%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Patro Eisden46% · Match result
  • Under 2.551% · Goals
  • Yes52% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Patro Eisden the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home46%vs—
Draw28%vs—
Away26%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.549%vs—
Under 2.551%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs—
Under 1.526%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.527%vs—
Under 3.573%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs—
No48%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Patro Eisden

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

AS Eupen

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Patro EisdenLLLW

  • Fri 4 Sep · A v Beerschot VA 2–4
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Club Brugge II 1–2
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v K. Lierse S.K. 1–2
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v RSC Anderlecht II 2–1

AS EupenWLW

  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Club Brugge II 1–0
  • Fri 21 Aug · A v Lokeren-Temse 1–2
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v KRC Genk II 4–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Patro Eisden
  • Patro Eisden have won 1 of their last 4.
  • Patro Eisden have scored in 4 of their last 4.
  • 4 of Patro Eisden's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Patro Eisden's last 4.
  • Patro Eisden kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
AS Eupen
  • AS Eupen have won 2 of their last 3.
  • AS Eupen have scored in 3 of their last 3.
  • 2 of AS Eupen's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of AS Eupen's last 3.
  • AS Eupen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Patro Eisden

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

AS Eupen

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Patrostadion, Maasmechelen

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Patro Eisden vs AS Eupen?
Our model makes Patro Eisden the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Patro Eisden vs AS Eupen?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs AS Eupen?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.