Serie A · Regular Season - 34
BotafogovAtletico-MG
Botafogo
Atletico-MG·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.5–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (10%). Botafogo and Atletico-MG finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Bot / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Botafogo down the side and Atletico-MG across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Botafogo51% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Botafogo the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Botafogo
Lineup not yet confirmed
- K. Barria — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Cabral — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheus Martins — out (Inactive)
- Marcal — out (Red Card)
- N. Ferraresi — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Correa — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Ponte — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Medina — out (Yellow Cards)
- Junior Santos — out (Foot Injury)
- Bastos — out (Injury)
- Alex Telles — out (Yellow Cards)
- Nathan Fernandes — out (Knee Injury)
- Allan — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Barboza — out (Inactive)
- S. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- C. Ramos — out (Inactive)
- Newton — out (Inactive)
- Kaio Pantaleao — out (Knee Injury)
Atletico-MG
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Ruan Tressoldi — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Preciado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lyanco — out (Foot Injury)
- R. Lodi — out (Suspended)
- Gustavo Scarpa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Cuello — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Roman — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Minda — out (Inactive)
- A. Franco — out (Personal Reasons)
- Maycon — out (Inactive)
- M. Cisse — out (Thigh Injury)
- Patrick Silva — out (Knee Injury)
- Vitor Hugo — out (Calf Injury)
- Alexsander — out (Knee Injury)
- Junior Santos — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BotafogoLLWDL
- Thu 29 Oct · A v Remo 1–2
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Internacional 0–3
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Chapecoense-sc 1–0
- Mon 12 Oct · A v Coritiba 1–1
- Wed 7 Oct · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–2
Atletico-MGLLWWD
- Thu 29 Oct · H v Cruzeiro 0–1
- Mon 26 Oct · A v Flamengo 2–3
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Coritiba 1–0
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Santos 2–1
- Thu 8 Oct · A v Atletico Paranaense 2–2(xG 1.7–2.7)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Botafogo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Botafogo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Botafogo's last 5.
- Botafogo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico-MG have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico-MG have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico-MG's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico-MG's last 5.
- Atletico-MG kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Botafogo W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo
7Context
Botafogo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atletico-MG
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: L. Casagrande
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Our model makes Botafogo the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
- Botafogo's reported absences and doubts include K. Barria, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Marcal and 14 others. Atletico-MG's include Ruan Tressoldi, A. Preciado, Lyanco, R. Lodi and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.