Serie A · Regular Season - 29
BotafogovVasco DA Gama
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bot / Vas | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Botafogo down the side and Vasco DA Gama across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 30%.
What we think
- Botafogo61% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Botafogo
Best price 2.86 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
A half-Kelly stake at the cautious end of our range would be 2.00% of a bankroll, at odds of 2.86. Sizing, not advice: it assumes you can get that price, it is computed at 49% rather than our headline number, and it is halved and capped because the probability is an estimate and no single match should be able to matter much.
- We make this 61% against a market price of 34% — 27 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 97% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 28 players reported unavailable — 18 for Botafogo, 10 for Vasco DA Gama.
Our forecast makes Botafogo the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Vasco DA Gama the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 34%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives Vasco DA Gama a 39% chance. Our model makes it 17%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 27% draw · 39% away
Now: 34% home · 27% draw · 39% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Botafogo
Lineup not yet confirmed
- K. Barria — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Cabral — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheus Martins — out (Inactive)
- Marcal — out (Red Card)
- N. Ferraresi — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Correa — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Ponte — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Medina — out (Yellow Cards)
- Junior Santos — out (Foot Injury)
- Bastos — out (Injury)
- Alex Telles — out (Yellow Cards)
- Nathan Fernandes — out (Knee Injury)
- Allan — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Barboza — out (Inactive)
- S. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- C. Ramos — out (Inactive)
- Newton — out (Inactive)
- Kaio Pantaleao — out (Knee Injury)
Vasco DA Gama
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Cuiabano — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rojas — out (Inactive)
- Jair — out (Muscle Injury)
- Brenner — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Saldivia — out (Calf Injury)
- C. Cuesta — out (Red Card)
- Paulo Henrique — out (Ankle Injury)
- Cauan Barros — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Rodriguez — out (Yellow Cards)
- Mateus Carvalho — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BotafogoLWDDL
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Mirassol 0–2
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Gremio 3–2(xG 0.9–0.6)
- Sat 12 Sep · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Flamengo 0–3(xG 0.8–1.7)
Vasco DA GamaWWLWL
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Coritiba 5–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Gremio 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Fluminense 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Cruzeiro 3–1(xG 3.2–0.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Palmeiras 1–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Botafogo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Botafogo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Botafogo's last 5.
- Botafogo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama have won 3 of their last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Vasco DA Gama's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Botafogo W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Botafogo
7Context
Botafogo
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Vasco DA Gama
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: Bruno Arleu
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Our model makes Botafogo the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market instead favours Vasco DA Gama at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Botafogo's reported absences and doubts include K. Barria, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Marcal and 14 others. Vasco DA Gama's include Cuiabano, J. Rojas, Jair, Brenner and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.