Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Chapecoense-scvMirassol
Chapecoense-sc
Mirassol·
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cha / Mir | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chapecoense-sc down the side and Mirassol across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Mirassol54% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Mirassol the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chapecoense-sc
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Giovanni Augusto — out (Inactive)
- Joao Paulo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Caetano — out (Yellow Cards)
- Y. Bolasie — out (Injury)
- Rafael Carvalheira — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio Garcez — out (Thigh Injury)
- Eduardo Doma — out (Yellow Cards)
- Camilo Reijers — out (Yellow Cards)
- Rafael Thyere — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Robert Conceicao — out (Knee Injury)
- Everton — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marcos Vinicius — doubtful (Inactive)
Mirassol
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Alesson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Walter — out (Injury)
- Neto Moura — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Carioca — out (Injury)
- Jose Aldo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre Luis — out (Muscle Injury)
- Yuri Lara — out (Ankle Injury)
- Negueba — out (Knee Injury)
- Eduardo — out (Red Card)
- Renato Marques — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Carius — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Chapecoense-scLWLLL
- Wed 28 Oct · A v RB Bragantino 0–3
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Fluminense 2–1
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Botafogo 0–1
- Mon 12 Oct · H v Atletico Paranaense 1–4
- Wed 7 Oct · A v Vitoria 0–4
MirassolLDWLD
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Corinthians 0–2
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Sao Paulo 1–1
- Fri 16 Oct · H v Internacional 2–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Bahia 0–1
- Wed 7 Oct · A v RB Bragantino 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chapecoense-sc have won 1 of their last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have won 1 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 0 of Mirassol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Mirassol's last 5.
- Mirassol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Chapecoense-sc W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Mirassol 1–1 Chapecoense-sc
7Context
Chapecoense-sc
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mirassol
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Arena Condá, Chapeco · Referee: L. Torezin
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
- Our model makes Mirassol the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol?
- Chapecoense-sc's reported absences and doubts include Giovanni Augusto, Joao Paulo, Victor Caetano, Y. Bolasie and 8 others. Mirassol's include Alesson, Walter, Neto Moura, Edson Carioca and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.