Serie A · Regular Season - 29
CruzeirovSao Paulo
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo finish on some other score 60% of the time.
| Cru / Sao | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Cruzeiro down the side and Sao Paulo across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 71% against 74%.
What we think
- Cruzeiro49% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cruzeiro the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, which is what the market has it at too (48%).
For comparison, the market gives Cruzeiro a 51% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Now: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cruzeiro
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Villarreal — out (Inactive)
- L. Romero — out (Calf Injury)
- Kenji — out (Inactive)
- Jonathan Jesus — out (Injury)
- Bruno Rodrigues — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sinisterra — out (Muscle Injury)
- Fagner — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gerson — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Arroyo — out (Inactive)
- William Furtado — out (Personal Reasons)
- Kaua Prates — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Jorge — out (Foot Injury)
- Cassio — out (Knee Injury)
Sao Paulo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Pablo Maia — out (Yellow Cards)
- D. Bobadilla — out (Inactive)
- Lucca Marques — out (Jaw injury)
- R. Toloi — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Diaz — out (Personal Reasons)
- Sabino — out (Injury)
- Luciano — out (Inactive)
- Andre Silva — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jonathan Calleri — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Ramon — out (Injury)
- Lucas Moura — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Muscle Injury)
- Marcos Antonio — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CruzeiroWLWLW
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Vitoria 3–1
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Santos 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Atletico Paranaense 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 1–3(xG 0.6–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Flamengo 2–1
Sao PauloWLWWL
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Internacional 1–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Palmeiras 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atletico-MG 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 2–1(xG 1.6–0.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Chapecoense-sc 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5.
- Cruzeiro have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Cruzeiro's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cruzeiro's last 5.
- Cruzeiro kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have won 3 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Sao Paulo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Sao Paulo's last 5.
- Sao Paulo kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Cruzeiro W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Sao Paulo 4–1 Cruzeiro
7Context
Cruzeiro
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Sao Paulo
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estádio Mineirão, Bello Harisanta · Referee: Wilton Sampaio
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
- Our model makes Cruzeiro the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
- Cruzeiro's reported absences and doubts include N. Villarreal, L. Romero, Kenji, Jonathan Jesus and 10 others. Sao Paulo's include Pablo Maia, D. Bobadilla, Lucca Marques, R. Toloi and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?
- Cruzeiro line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sao Paulo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.