Serie A · Regular Season - 29
InternacionalvCorinthians
Internacional
Corinthians·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Internacional and Corinthians finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Int / Cor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Internacional down the side and Corinthians across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 26% against 22%.
What we think
- Internacional46% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Internacional the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 44% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Internacional a 43% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 29% draw · 28% away
Now: 43% home · 29% draw · 28% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Internacional
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Internacional
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Matheus Bahia — out (Red Card)
- R. Villagra — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Bernabei — out (Yellow Cards)
- Paulinho Paula — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Mercado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Gabriel — out (Red Card)
- Thiago Maia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Arhin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Rochet — out (Lower Back Injury)
- Kayky — out (Ankle Injury)
- F. Torres — out (International duty)
- A. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- Bruno Tabata — out (Injury)
Corinthians
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Allan — out (Loan agreement)
- Gabriel Paulista — out (Groin Injury)
- Raniele — out (Red Card)
- Hugo Souza — out (Yellow Cards)
- Breno Bidon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheuzinho — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Bidu — out (Inactive)
- Andre Ramalho — out (Inactive)
- Yuri Alberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre — out (Muscle Injury)
- Vitinho — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Depay — out (Rest)
- Charles Rigon — out (Inactive)
- A. Carrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Joao Pedro — out (Muscle Injury)
- Gui Negao — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Cesar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Hugo — out (Knee Injury)
- Felipe Longo — out (Elbow Injury)
- M. Pereira — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Martinez — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
InternacionalLWLLD
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Sao Paulo 0–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Chapecoense-sc 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Santos 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Bahia 2–3(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Atletico-MG 0–0
CorinthiansLLLLL
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Fluminense 1–3
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Flamengo 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Chapecoense-sc 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Santos 0–1(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Coritiba 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Internacional have won 1 of their last 5.
- Internacional have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Internacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Internacional's last 5.
- Internacional kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have won 0 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Corinthians's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Corinthians's last 5.
- Corinthians kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Internacional W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Corinthians 0–1 Internacional
7Context
Internacional
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Corinthians
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estádio Beira Rio, Porto Alegre · Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Internacional vs Corinthians?
- Our model makes Internacional the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Corinthians?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Internacional vs Corinthians?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Internacional vs Corinthians?
- Internacional's reported absences and doubts include Matheus Bahia, R. Villagra, A. Bernabei, Paulinho Paula and 9 others. Corinthians's include Allan, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, Hugo Souza and 17 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.