Serie A · Regular Season - 29
PalmeirasvBahia
Palmeiras
Bahia·
1 – 0 (90')
1Headline
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.
We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:
- • Market prices and price movement
- • Head-to-head record and recent form
- • Lineups and injuries where available
- • Venue, kickoff time, and context
Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.
For comparison, the market gives Palmeiras a 62% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.
2Market
Open: 62% home · 22% draw · 16% away
Now: 62% home · 21% draw · 16% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Palmeiras
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Barboza — out (Red Card)
- Murilo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sosa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Piquerez — out (Foot Injury)
- Paulinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Khellven — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- Bruno Fuchs — out (Surgery)
- J. Lopez — out (Inactive)
- Jefte — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio — out (International duty)
- J. Arias — out (International duty)
- Vitor Roque — out (Ankle Injury)
- Figueiredo — out (Injury)
Bahia
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Erick — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Olivera — out (Yellow Cards)
- Michel Araujo — out (Inactive)
- Ademir — out (Injury)
- Everton Ribeiro — out (Inactive)
- David Duarte — out (Yellow Cards)
- Luciano Juba — out (Yellow Cards)
- Leo Vieira — out (Knee Injury)
- Caio Alexandre — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Ronaldo Strada — out (Shoulder Injury)
- M. Sanabria — out (Inactive)
- Gilberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Ruan Pablo — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PalmeirasDWDDW
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Gremio 0–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Sao Paulo 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Botafogo 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Mirassol 1–1(xG 1.5–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Vasco DA Gama 4–1
BahiaLWWWW
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Atletico Paranaense 1–2
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Remo 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v RB Bragantino 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Internacional 3–2(xG 2.4–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vitoria 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Palmeiras have won 2 of their last 5.
- Palmeiras have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Palmeiras's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Palmeiras's last 5.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Bahia have won 4 of their last 5.
- Bahia have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bahia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bahia's last 5.
- Bahia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Palmeiras W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras
7Context
Palmeiras
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Bahia
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo · Referee: Braulio da Silva Machado
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- What is the team news for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- Palmeiras's reported absences and doubts include A. Barboza, Murilo, Allan Elias, R. Sosa and 11 others. Bahia's include Erick, C. Olivera, Michel Araujo, Ademir and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- Palmeiras line up in a 3-4-2-1, Bahia in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.