Serie A · Regular Season - 34
PalmeirasvRemo
Palmeiras
Remo·
1Headline
We expect
2–12.4–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%). Palmeiras and Remo finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Pal / Rem | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Palmeiras down the side and Remo across. These 96.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Palmeiras74% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Palmeiras the most likely of the three results, at 74% (we would not be surprised by anything from 65% to 83%). Most likely is not likely: at 74% this result does not happen 26% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Palmeiras
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Barboza — out (Red Card)
- Murilo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sosa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Piquerez — out (Foot Injury)
- Paulinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Khellven — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- Bruno Fuchs — out (Surgery)
- J. Lopez — out (Inactive)
- Jefte — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio — out (International duty)
- J. Arias — out (International duty)
- Vitor Roque — out (Ankle Injury)
- Figueiredo — out (Injury)
Remo
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Marcelinho — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Fernando — out (Red Card)
- Ze Ivaldo — out (Loan agreement)
- Mayk — out (Inactive)
- Jaja — out (Inactive)
- Eduardo Melo — out (Inactive)
- Ze Ricardo — out (Red Card)
- Patrick de Paula — out (Groin Injury)
- Thalisson — out (Knee Injury)
- Kayky Almeida — out (Knee Injury)
- Freitas — out (Inactive)
- Joao Lucas — out (Knee Injury)
- Savio — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Diego Hernandez — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PalmeirasDWWWW
- Wed 28 Oct · A v Santos 0–0
- Sat 24 Oct · H v RB Bragantino 2–0
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Atletico Paranaense 2–0
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Corinthians 4–1
- Fri 9 Oct · H v Bahia 1–0
RemoWLDDD
- Thu 29 Oct · H v Botafogo 2–1
- Fri 23 Oct · A v Cruzeiro 0–1
- Sun 18 Oct · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Vasco DA Gama 0–0
- Wed 7 Oct · H v Gremio 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Palmeiras have won 4 of their last 5.
- Palmeiras have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Palmeiras's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Palmeiras's last 5.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Remo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Remo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Remo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Remo's last 5.
- Remo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Palmeiras W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Remo 1–1 Palmeiras
7Context
Palmeiras
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Remo
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Palmeiras vs Remo?
- Our model makes Palmeiras the most likely result at 74%. Most likely is not likely — at 74% it does not happen 26% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Remo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Remo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Palmeiras vs Remo?
- Palmeiras's reported absences and doubts include A. Barboza, Murilo, Allan Elias, R. Sosa and 11 others. Remo's include Marcelinho, Edson Fernando, Ze Ivaldo, Mayk and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.