Serie A · Regular Season - 29
RB BragantinovMirassol
RB Bragantino
Mirassol·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). RB Bragantino and Mirassol finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| RB / Mir | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, RB Bragantino down the side and Mirassol across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 77% against 78%.
What we think
- RB Bragantino41% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes RB Bragantino the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives RB Bragantino a 53% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 25% draw · 22% away
Now: 53% home · 25% draw · 22% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
RB Bragantino
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Rodriguinho — out (Inactive)
- A. Sant'Anna — out (Yellow Cards)
- I. Pitta — out (Yellow Cards)
- Fernando Santos — out (Illness)
- Gustavo Marques — out (Yellow Cards)
- Fabinho — out (Red Card)
- Vanderlan — out (Knee Injury)
- Gabriel — out (Rest)
- H. Mosquera — out (Yellow Cards)
- Alix Vinicius — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Herrera — out (Inactive)
- Davi Gomes — out (Knee Injury)
- Fabricio — out (Ankle Injury)
Mirassol
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Alesson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Walter — out (Injury)
- Neto Moura — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Carioca — out (Injury)
- Jose Aldo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre Luis — out (Muscle Injury)
- Yuri Lara — out (Ankle Injury)
- Negueba — out (Knee Injury)
- Eduardo — out (Red Card)
- Renato Marques — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Carius — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RB BragantinoLDLLW
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Flamengo 1–2
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Botafogo 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bahia 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sao Paulo 1–2(xG 0.5–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Gremio 1–0
MirassolWDWLD
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Botafogo 2–0
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Vitoria 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Coritiba 2–1
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Flamengo 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Palmeiras 1–1(xG 0.8–1.5)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- RB Bragantino have won 1 of their last 5.
- RB Bragantino have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of RB Bragantino's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of RB Bragantino's last 5.
- RB Bragantino kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have won 2 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Mirassol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Mirassol's last 5.
- Mirassol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- RB Bragantino W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Mirassol 0–1 RB Bragantino
7Context
RB Bragantino
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Mirassol
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques, Braganza · Referee: Raphael Claus
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
- Our model makes RB Bragantino the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
- RB Bragantino's reported absences and doubts include Rodriguinho, A. Sant'Anna, I. Pitta, Fernando Santos and 9 others. Mirassol's include Alesson, Walter, Neto Moura, Edson Carioca and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.