Serie A · Regular Season - 34
RB BragantinovSantos
RB Bragantino
Santos·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). RB Bragantino and Santos finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| RB / San | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, RB Bragantino down the side and Santos across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- RB Bragantino49% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes RB Bragantino the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
RB Bragantino
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Rodriguinho — out (Inactive)
- A. Sant'Anna — out (Yellow Cards)
- I. Pitta — out (Yellow Cards)
- Fernando Santos — out (Illness)
- Gustavo Marques — out (Yellow Cards)
- Fabinho — out (Red Card)
- Vanderlan — out (Knee Injury)
- Gabriel — out (Rest)
- H. Mosquera — out (Yellow Cards)
- Alix Vinicius — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Herrera — out (Inactive)
- Davi Gomes — out (Knee Injury)
- Fabricio — out (Ankle Injury)
Santos
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Lucas Verissimo — out (Ankle Injury)
- Gabriel Barbosa — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Brazao — out (Inactive)
- A. Barreal — out (Thigh Injury)
- Neymar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Joao Schmidt — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Menino — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Frias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Moises — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Vinicius — out (Back Injury)
- Gustavo Henrique — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Thaciano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Mayke — out (Inactive)
- L. Diaz — out (Inactive)
- Ze Rafael — out (Ankle Injury)
- Willian Arao — out (Inactive)
- Tiquinho Soares — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RB BragantinoWLDWD
- Wed 28 Oct · H v Chapecoense-sc 3–0
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Palmeiras 0–2
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Remo 1–1
- Tue 13 Oct · H v Cruzeiro 4–2
- Wed 7 Oct · H v Mirassol 1–1
SantosDDWLD
- Wed 28 Oct · H v Palmeiras 0–0
- Sun 25 Oct · H v Bahia 1–1
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Fluminense 2–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Atletico-MG 1–2
- Thu 8 Oct · H v Flamengo 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- RB Bragantino have won 2 of their last 5.
- RB Bragantino have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of RB Bragantino's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of RB Bragantino's last 5.
- RB Bragantino kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Santos have won 1 of their last 5.
- Santos have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Santos's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Santos's last 5.
- Santos kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- RB Bragantino W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Santos 2–0 RB Bragantino
7Context
RB Bragantino
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Santos
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Venue unconfirmed · Referee: E. Batista
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win RB Bragantino vs Santos?
- Our model makes RB Bragantino the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in RB Bragantino vs Santos?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Santos?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for RB Bragantino vs Santos?
- RB Bragantino's reported absences and doubts include Rodriguinho, A. Sant'Anna, I. Pitta, Fernando Santos and 9 others. Santos's include Lucas Verissimo, Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Brazao, A. Barreal and 13 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.