Serie A · Regular Season - 29
RemovGremio
Remo
Gremio·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Remo and Gremio finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rem / Gre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Remo down the side and Gremio across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 50%.
What we think
- Remo42% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Remo the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 50% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Remo a 41% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 27% draw · 31% away
Now: 41% home · 27% draw · 31% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Remo
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Remo
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Marcelinho — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Fernando — out (Red Card)
- Ze Ivaldo — out (Loan agreement)
- Mayk — out (Inactive)
- Jaja — out (Inactive)
- Eduardo Melo — out (Inactive)
- Ze Ricardo — out (Red Card)
- Patrick de Paula — out (Groin Injury)
- Thalisson — out (Knee Injury)
- Kayky Almeida — out (Knee Injury)
- Freitas — out (Inactive)
- Joao Lucas — out (Knee Injury)
- Savio — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Diego Hernandez — out (Inactive)
Gremio
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Diego Caito — out (Injury)
- C. Pavon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marlon — out (Injury)
- F. Amuzu — out (Inactive)
- E. Noriega — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Mec — out (Inactive)
- Walter Kannemann — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Nardoni — out (Knee Injury)
- Gustavo Martins — out (Injury)
- M. Villasanti — out (Rest)
- M. Monsalve — out (Coach's decision)
- Fabian Balbuena — out (Coach's decision)
- Willian — out (Inactive)
- Joao Pedro — out (Transfer negotiations)
- L. Perez — out (Yellow Cards)
- Viery — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Melo — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Braithwaite — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RemoLLLLL
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Santos 1–2
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Bahia 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Flamengo 0–1
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Coritiba 2–3(xG 2.9–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Fluminense 1–2
GremioDLLLW
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Botafogo 2–3(xG 0.6–0.9)
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Vitoria 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Chapecoense-sc 3–1(xG 0.7–2.8)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Remo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Remo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Remo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Remo's last 5.
- Remo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Gremio have won 1 of their last 5.
- Gremio have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Gremio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Gremio's last 5.
- Gremio kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Remo W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Gremio 0–0 Remo
7Context
Remo
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Gremio
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Mangueirao, Belem · Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Remo vs Gremio?
- Our model makes Remo the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Remo vs Gremio?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Remo vs Gremio?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Remo vs Gremio?
- Remo's reported absences and doubts include Marcelinho, Edson Fernando, Ze Ivaldo, Mayk and 10 others. Gremio's include Diego Caito, C. Pavon, Marlon, F. Amuzu and 14 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.