Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Sao PaulovCorinthians
Sao Paulo
Corinthians·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Sao Paulo and Corinthians finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Sao / Cor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sao Paulo down the side and Corinthians across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Sao Paulo44% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- Yes50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Sao Paulo the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sao Paulo
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Pablo Maia — out (Yellow Cards)
- D. Bobadilla — out (Inactive)
- Lucca Marques — out (Jaw injury)
- R. Toloi — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Diaz — out (Personal Reasons)
- Sabino — out (Injury)
- Luciano — out (Inactive)
- Andre Silva — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jonathan Calleri — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Ramon — out (Injury)
- Lucas Moura — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Muscle Injury)
- Marcos Antonio — out (Hamstring Injury)
Corinthians
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Allan — out (Loan agreement)
- Gabriel Paulista — out (Groin Injury)
- Raniele — out (Red Card)
- Hugo Souza — out (Yellow Cards)
- Breno Bidon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheuzinho — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Bidu — out (Inactive)
- Andre Ramalho — out (Inactive)
- Yuri Alberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre — out (Muscle Injury)
- Vitinho — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Depay — out (Rest)
- Charles Rigon — out (Inactive)
- A. Carrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Joao Pedro — out (Muscle Injury)
- Gui Negao — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Cesar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Hugo — out (Knee Injury)
- Felipe Longo — out (Elbow Injury)
- M. Pereira — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Martinez — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sao PauloLDWWL
- Thu 29 Oct · A v Bahia 2–3
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Mirassol 1–1
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–0
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Vitoria 2–1
- Thu 8 Oct · A v Cruzeiro 0–2
CorinthiansWLDLL
- Fri 30 Oct · H v Mirassol 2–0
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Vasco DA Gama 2–3
- Mon 19 Oct · H v Vitoria 1–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Palmeiras 1–4
- Wed 7 Oct · A v Internacional 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sao Paulo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sao Paulo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sao Paulo's last 5.
- Sao Paulo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have won 1 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Corinthians's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Corinthians's last 5.
- Corinthians kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Sao Paulo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Corinthians 3–2 Sao Paulo
7Context
Sao Paulo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Corinthians
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo · Referee: R. Claus
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
- Our model makes Sao Paulo the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
- Sao Paulo's reported absences and doubts include Pablo Maia, D. Bobadilla, Lucca Marques, R. Toloi and 9 others. Corinthians's include Allan, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, Hugo Souza and 17 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.