Serie A · Regular Season - 29
VitoriavChapecoense-sc
Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Vit / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vitoria down the side and Chapecoense-sc across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 28%.
What we think
- Vitoria61% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Vitoria the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Vitoria a 57% chance. Our model makes it 61%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 24% draw · 18% away
Now: 57% home · 24% draw · 18% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vitoria
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Ramon — out (Injury)
- Emmanuel Martinez — out (Injury)
- Caca — out (Suspended)
- Luan Candido — out (Red Card)
- Nathan Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- Renato Kayzer — out (Yellow Cards)
- Baralhas — out (Inactive)
- Jamerson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Pedro — out (Hand Injury)
- Edu — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Marinho — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Dudu — out (Back Injury)
- Claudinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Ramos — out (Knee Injury)
Chapecoense-sc
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Giovanni Augusto — out (Inactive)
- Joao Paulo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Caetano — out (Yellow Cards)
- Y. Bolasie — out (Injury)
- Rafael Carvalheira — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio Garcez — out (Thigh Injury)
- Eduardo Doma — out (Yellow Cards)
- Camilo Reijers — out (Yellow Cards)
- Rafael Thyere — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Robert Conceicao — out (Knee Injury)
- Everton — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marcos Vinicius — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VitoriaLDWLL
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Cruzeiro 1–3
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Mirassol 2–2
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Gremio 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atletico-MG 1–2(xG 0.6–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Bahia 0–2
Chapecoense-scDLWLW
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Atletico-MG 1–1
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Internacional 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Gremio 1–3(xG 2.8–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sao Paulo 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vitoria have won 1 of their last 5.
- Vitoria have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Vitoria's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vitoria's last 5.
- Vitoria kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Vitoria W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Vitoria
7Context
Vitoria
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Chapecoense-sc
Rest: 18 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador · Referee: Edina Alves Batista
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Our model makes Vitoria the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Vitoria's reported absences and doubts include Ramon, Emmanuel Martinez, Caca, Luan Candido and 10 others. Chapecoense-sc's include Giovanni Augusto, Joao Paulo, Victor Caetano, Y. Bolasie and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.