Superliga · Regular Season - 9
AC HorsensvAarhus
AC Horsens
Aarhus·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–20.9–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (12%), then 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). AC Horsens and Aarhus finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| AC / Aar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AC Horsens down the side and Aarhus across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Aarhus56% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Aarhus the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AC Horsens
Lineup not yet confirmed
- C. Vestergaard — out (Knee Injury)
Aarhus
Lineup not yet confirmed
- T. Kristjansson — out (Inactive)
- O. Haugstrup — out (Inactive)
- C. Storch — out (Inactive)
- C. Rosler — out (Inactive)
- F. Tingager — out (Injury)
- K. Yakob — out (Inactive)
- M. Solbakken — out (Inactive)
- J. Serra — out (Suspended)
- G. Links — out (Inactive)
- J. Andersen — out (Inactive)
- N. Poulsen — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- T. Molgaard — out (Injury)
- R. Gyamfi — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Callo — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AC HorsensLWLWW
- Fri 11 Sep · A v FC Copenhagen 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Sonderjyske 5–2(xG 2.4–0.6)
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Viborg 2–3
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Lyngby 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Odense 2–1
AarhusLDLLD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Nordsjaelland 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Silkeborg 2–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v FC Midtjylland 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Randers FC 1–2
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Odense 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AC Horsens have won 3 of their last 5.
- AC Horsens have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of AC Horsens's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of AC Horsens's last 5.
- AC Horsens kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Aarhus have won 0 of their last 5.
- Aarhus have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Aarhus's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Aarhus's last 5.
- Aarhus kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
AC Horsens
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Aarhus
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
CASA Arena, Horsens · Referee: Jonas Hansen, Denmark
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
- Our model makes Aarhus the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
- AC Horsens's reported absences and doubts include C. Vestergaard. Aarhus's include T. Kristjansson, O. Haugstrup, C. Storch, C. Rosler and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.