Superliga · Regular Season - 8
FC MidtjyllandvBrondby
FC Midtjylland
Brondby·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). FC Midtjylland and Brondby finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Bro | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Midtjylland down the side and Brondby across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 40%.
What we think
- FC Midtjylland52% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Midtjylland the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, which is what the market has it at too (61%).
For comparison, the market gives FC Midtjylland a 54% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 24% draw · 23% away
Now: 54% home · 24% draw · 22% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Brondby
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Midtjylland
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Erlic — out (Injury)
- Hong Hyun-Seok — out (Injury)
- D. Beni — out (Inactive)
- D. Martinez — out (Leg Injury)
- M. B. Sorensen — out (Injury)
- J. Emefile — out (Red Card)
- E. Chilufya — out (Inactive)
- V. Bak — out (Inactive)
- Lee Han-Beom — out (Inactive)
- Junior Brumado — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Gogorza — out (Hip Injury)
- O. Diao — out (Foot Injury)
Brondby
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- F. Alves — out (Inactive)
- B. Slisz — out (Red Card)
- M. Jensen — out (Inactive)
- L. Binks — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Ambaek — out (Injury)
- G. Beavers — out (Groin Injury)
- M. Divkovic — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC MidtjyllandDWDWD
- Mon 7 Sep · H v FC Nordsjaelland 2–2(xG 1.9–2.1)
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Aarhus 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Silkeborg 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Randers FC 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Lyngby 1–1
BrondbyLLWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Randers FC 0–3(xG 1.2–0.8)
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Nordsjaelland 1–3
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Silkeborg 3–1
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Sonderjyske 3–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v AC Horsens 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Midtjylland have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Midtjylland have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 1 of FC Midtjylland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Midtjylland's last 5.
- FC Midtjylland kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Brondby have won 3 of their last 5.
- Brondby have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Brondby's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Brondby's last 5.
- Brondby kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Midtjylland
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Brondby
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
MCH Arena, Herning · Referee: Morten Krogh, Denmark
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Brondby?
- Our model makes FC Midtjylland the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Midtjylland vs Brondby?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in FC Midtjylland vs Brondby?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Midtjylland vs Brondby?
- FC Midtjylland's reported absences and doubts include M. Erlic, Hong Hyun-Seok, D. Beni, D. Martinez and 8 others. Brondby's include F. Alves, B. Slisz, M. Jensen, L. Binks and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Midtjylland vs Brondby?
- FC Midtjylland line up in a 3-5-2, Brondby in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.