Superliga · Regular Season - 8
FC NordsjaellandvAarhus
FC Nordsjaelland
Aarhus·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Aar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Nordsjaelland down the side and Aarhus across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- FC Nordsjaelland39% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes FC Nordsjaelland the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Nordsjaelland
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- N. Rojkjaer — out (Inactive)
- T. Salquist — out (Inactive)
- A. Mohammed — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Lind — out (Injury)
- S. Alio — out (Knee Injury)
Aarhus
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Kristjansson — out (Inactive)
- O. Haugstrup — out (Inactive)
- C. Storch — out (Inactive)
- C. Rosler — out (Inactive)
- F. Tingager — out (Injury)
- K. Yakob — out (Inactive)
- M. Solbakken — out (Inactive)
- J. Serra — out (Suspended)
- G. Links — out (Inactive)
- J. Andersen — out (Inactive)
- N. Poulsen — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- T. Molgaard — out (Injury)
- R. Gyamfi — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Callo — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC NordsjaellandDLWWW
- Mon 7 Sep · A v FC Midtjylland 2–2(xG 2.1–1.9)
- Thu 3 Sep · A v FC Copenhagen 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brondby 3–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Sonderjyske 3–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Silkeborg 1–0
AarhusDLLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Silkeborg 2–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v FC Midtjylland 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Randers FC 1–2
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Odense 2–2
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Viborg 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Nordsjaelland have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Nordsjaelland have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Nordsjaelland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC Nordsjaelland's last 5.
- FC Nordsjaelland kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Aarhus have won 0 of their last 5.
- Aarhus have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Aarhus's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Aarhus's last 5.
- Aarhus kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Nordsjaelland
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Aarhus
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Right to Dream Park, Farum · Referee: Jacob Karlsen, Denmark
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus?
- Our model makes FC Nordsjaelland the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus?
- FC Nordsjaelland's reported absences and doubts include N. Rojkjaer, T. Salquist, A. Mohammed, A. Lind and 1 other. Aarhus's include T. Kristjansson, O. Haugstrup, C. Storch, C. Rosler and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus?
- FC Nordsjaelland line up in a 3-4-3, Aarhus in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.