Superliga · Regular Season - 8
LyngbyvSonderjyske
Lyngby
Sonderjyske·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Lyngby and Sonderjyske finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Lyn / Son | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lyngby down the side and Sonderjyske across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 37%.
What we think
- Sonderjyske39% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 63% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals, and 3.0 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
- 9 players reported unavailable — 1 for Lyngby, 8 for Sonderjyske.
Our forecast makes Sonderjyske the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Lyngby the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 18%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 59% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Lyngby a 61% chance. Our model makes it 33%.
2Market
Open: 61% home · 22% draw · 18% away
Now: 61% home · 22% draw · 18% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lyngby
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- O. Snorre — out (Knee Injury)
Sonderjyske
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- S. Velkov — out (Red Card)
- B. Bjarnason — out (Red Card)
- R. Vinderslev — out (Injury)
- M. Olesen — out (Injury)
- D. L. Gretarsson — out (Inactive)
- A. Oggesen — out (Inactive)
- P. Kristensen — out (Inactive)
- T. Klysner — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LyngbyWDLDL
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Viborg 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Odense 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v AC Horsens 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v FC Midtjylland 1–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Randers FC 0–2
SonderjyskeLLLLD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v AC Horsens 2–5(xG 0.6–2.4)
- Mon 31 Aug · A v FC Copenhagen 1–3
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Nordsjaelland 0–3
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Brondby 2–3
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Viborg 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lyngby have won 1 of their last 5.
- Lyngby have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Lyngby's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lyngby's last 5.
- Lyngby kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sonderjyske have won 0 of their last 5.
- Sonderjyske have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sonderjyske's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sonderjyske's last 5.
- Sonderjyske kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Lyngby
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sonderjyske
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lyngby Stadium, Lyngby · Referee: Mikkel Redder, Denmark
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Lyngby vs Sonderjyske?
- Our model makes Sonderjyske the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Lyngby at 61%.
- How many goals are expected in Lyngby vs Sonderjyske?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Lyngby vs Sonderjyske?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lyngby vs Sonderjyske?
- Lyngby's reported absences and doubts include O. Snorre. Sonderjyske's include S. Velkov, B. Bjarnason, R. Vinderslev, M. Olesen and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lyngby vs Sonderjyske?
- Lyngby line up in a 4-4-2, Sonderjyske in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.