Superliga · Regular Season - 9

OdensevFC Midtjylland

·

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.2–2.2 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Odense and FC Midtjylland finish on some other score 73% of the time.

Probability of each scoreline, Odense goals down the side, FC Midtjylland across
Ode / FC 012345
0478631
14910742
2356421.0
312220.90.4
40.30.70.70.50.30.1
50.10.20.20.10.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Odense down the side and FC Midtjylland across. These 97.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.4% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 82%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 62%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 39%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • FC Midtjylland59% · Match result
  • Over 2.562% · Goals
  • Yes60% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes FC Midtjylland the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home20%vs—
Draw21%vs—
Away59%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.562%vs—
Under 2.538%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.582%vs—
Under 1.518%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.539%vs—
Under 3.561%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes60%vs—
No40%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Odense

Confirmed · 4-4-2

  • P. Therkildsen — out (Inactive)
  • I. Ouedraogo — out (Inactive)
  • A. Suhonen — out (Inactive)
  • J. Niemiec — out (Inactive)
  • F. Arp — out (Inactive)
  • V. Myhra — out (Red Card)
  • W. Martin — out (Injury)
  • J. Grot — out (Injury)

FC Midtjylland

Confirmed · 3-4-1-2

  • M. Erlic — out (Injury)
  • Hong Hyun-Seok — out (Injury)
  • D. Beni — out (Inactive)
  • D. Martinez — out (Leg Injury)
  • M. B. Sorensen — out (Injury)
  • J. Emefile — out (Red Card)
  • E. Chilufya — out (Inactive)
  • V. Bak — out (Inactive)
  • Lee Han-Beom — out (Inactive)
  • Junior Brumado — out (Knee Injury)
  • M. Gogorza — out (Hip Injury)
  • O. Diao — out (Foot Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

OdenseWLDDL

  • Sun 13 Sep · A v Randers FC 2–1
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Copenhagen 0–5(xG 2.2–2.8)
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Lyngby 1–1
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Aarhus 2–2
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v AC Horsens 1–2

FC MidtjyllandWDWDW

  • Mon 14 Sep · H v Brondby 4–1
  • Mon 7 Sep · H v FC Nordsjaelland 2–2(xG 1.9–2.1)
  • Wed 2 Sep · A v Aarhus 2–0
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Silkeborg 1–1
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Randers FC 1–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Odense
  • Odense have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Odense have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Odense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Odense's last 5.
  • Odense kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
FC Midtjylland
  • FC Midtjylland have won 3 of their last 5.
  • FC Midtjylland have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 2 of FC Midtjylland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of FC Midtjylland's last 5.
  • FC Midtjylland kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Odense

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

FC Midtjylland

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Nature Energy Park, Odense · Referee: Aydin Uslu

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Odense vs FC Midtjylland?
Our model makes FC Midtjylland the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Odense vs FC Midtjylland?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
Will both teams score in Odense vs FC Midtjylland?
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Odense vs FC Midtjylland?
Odense's reported absences and doubts include P. Therkildsen, I. Ouedraogo, A. Suhonen, J. Niemiec and 4 others. FC Midtjylland's include M. Erlic, Hong Hyun-Seok, D. Beni, D. Martinez and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Odense vs FC Midtjylland?
Odense line up in a 4-4-2, FC Midtjylland in a 3-4-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.