Superliga · Regular Season - 8
Randers FCvOdense
Randers FC
Odense·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Randers FC and Odense finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ran / Ode | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Randers FC down the side and Odense across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 38%.
What we think
- Randers FC43% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Randers FC the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 60% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Randers FC a 45% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 26% draw · 29% away
Now: 45% home · 26% draw · 29% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Randers FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- F. Sommer — out (Injury)
- N. Hopland — out (Red Card)
- C. Edudzi — out (Injury)
- W. Dammers — out (Injury)
- F. Lauenborg — out (Inactive)
- A. Henriksson — out (Red Card)
- M. Sankoh — out (Inactive)
- J. Bjorkengren — out (Injury)
- B. Orn — out (Injury)
- L. Lissens — out (Injury)
- O. Seck — out (Inactive)
- P. Izzo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Caddy — out (Injury)
Odense
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- P. Therkildsen — out (Inactive)
- I. Ouedraogo — out (Inactive)
- A. Suhonen — out (Inactive)
- J. Niemiec — out (Inactive)
- F. Arp — out (Inactive)
- V. Myhra — out (Red Card)
- W. Martin — out (Injury)
- J. Grot — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Randers FCWWLLW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Brondby 3–0(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Aarhus 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v FC Midtjylland 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v FC Copenhagen 0–4
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Lyngby 2–0
OdenseLDDLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Copenhagen 0–5(xG 2.2–2.8)
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Lyngby 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Aarhus 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v AC Horsens 1–2
- Mon 10 Aug · A v Silkeborg 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Randers FC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Randers FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Randers FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Randers FC's last 5.
- Randers FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Odense have won 0 of their last 5.
- Odense have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Odense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Odense's last 5.
- Odense kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Randers FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Odense
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Cepheus Park, Randers · Referee: Svend Funder, Denmark
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Randers FC vs Odense?
- Our model makes Randers FC the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Randers FC vs Odense?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Randers FC vs Odense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Randers FC vs Odense?
- Randers FC's reported absences and doubts include F. Sommer, N. Hopland, C. Edudzi, W. Dammers and 9 others. Odense's include P. Therkildsen, I. Ouedraogo, A. Suhonen, J. Niemiec and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Randers FC vs Odense?
- Randers FC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Odense in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.