Superliga · Regular Season - 9
SonderjyskevRanders FC
Sonderjyske
Randers FC·
4 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Sonderjyske and Randers FC finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Son / Ran | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sonderjyske down the side and Randers FC across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Sonderjyske38% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Sonderjyske the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sonderjyske
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- S. Velkov — out (Red Card)
- B. Bjarnason — out (Red Card)
- R. Vinderslev — out (Injury)
- M. Olesen — out (Injury)
- D. L. Gretarsson — out (Inactive)
- A. Oggesen — out (Inactive)
- P. Kristensen — out (Inactive)
- T. Klysner — out (Inactive)
Randers FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- F. Sommer — out (Injury)
- N. Hopland — out (Red Card)
- C. Edudzi — out (Injury)
- W. Dammers — out (Injury)
- F. Lauenborg — out (Inactive)
- A. Henriksson — out (Red Card)
- M. Sankoh — out (Inactive)
- J. Bjorkengren — out (Injury)
- B. Orn — out (Injury)
- L. Lissens — out (Injury)
- O. Seck — out (Inactive)
- P. Izzo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Caddy — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SonderjyskeDLLLL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Lyngby 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v AC Horsens 2–5(xG 0.6–2.4)
- Mon 31 Aug · A v FC Copenhagen 1–3
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Nordsjaelland 0–3
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Brondby 2–3
Randers FCLWWLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Odense 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Brondby 3–0(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Aarhus 2–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v FC Midtjylland 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v FC Copenhagen 0–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sonderjyske have won 0 of their last 5.
- Sonderjyske have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sonderjyske's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sonderjyske's last 5.
- Sonderjyske kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Randers FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Randers FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Randers FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Randers FC's last 5.
- Randers FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sonderjyske
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Randers FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sydbank Park, Haderslev · Referee: Jens Maae, Denmark
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sonderjyske vs Randers FC?
- Our model makes Sonderjyske the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sonderjyske vs Randers FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Sonderjyske vs Randers FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sonderjyske vs Randers FC?
- Sonderjyske's reported absences and doubts include S. Velkov, B. Bjarnason, R. Vinderslev, M. Olesen and 4 others. Randers FC's include F. Sommer, N. Hopland, C. Edudzi, W. Dammers and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sonderjyske vs Randers FC?
- Sonderjyske line up in a 4-2-3-1, Randers FC in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.