Championship · Regular Season - 4
SwanseavWatford
Swansea
Watford2026-09-01 ·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
Our bet on this match
None
We weighed 5 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
No forecast has been published for this fixture yet, so we have nothing of our own to tell you about the result.
For comparison, the market gives Swansea a 52% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Now: 52% home · 26% draw · 22% away
Moved +1.3pp — the market moved towards Swansea
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
| Market | Outcome | Ours | Price | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | — | 52% | — |
| Draw | — | 26% | — | |
| Away | — | 22% | — | |
| Goals over 2.5 | Over 2.5 | — | 49% | — |
| Under 2.5 | — | 51% | — | |
| Goals over 1.5 | Over 1.5 | — | 74% | — |
| Under 1.5 | — | 26% | — | |
| Goals over 3.5 | Over 3.5 | — | 28% | — |
| Under 3.5 | — | 72% | — | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | — | 52% | — |
| No | — | 48% | — |
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Swansea
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Watford
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SwanseaWDW
- 2026-08-29 · A v Derby 3–0(xG 3.3–0.6)
- 2026-08-22 · H v Sheffield Utd 0–0
- 2026-08-15 · A v Stoke City 2–1
WatfordDDWLL
- 2026-08-29 · H v West Ham 1–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
- 2026-08-22 · A v Wrexham 1–1
- 2026-08-16 · H v Southampton 2–1
- 2022-05-22 · A v Chelsea 1–2
- 2022-05-15 · H v Leicester 1–5
5Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
6Context
Swansea
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Watford
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea · Referee: E. Duckworth
7Expert consensus
Not available yet — expert tracking launches in a later milestone.
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
9What would change this
Nothing to show until a forecast is published for this match. We do not estimate this from the market.