Championship · Regular Season - 4
SwanseavWatford
Swansea
Watford·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.
We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:
- • Market prices and price movement
- • Head-to-head record and recent form
- • Lineups and injuries where available
- • Venue, kickoff time, and context
Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.
For comparison, the market gives Swansea a 52% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Now: 52% home · 26% draw · 22% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Swansea
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Swansea
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Key — out (Health problems)
- B. Cabango — out (Inactive)
- G. Franco — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Stewart — out (Injury)
- C. Burgess — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Watford
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Zemura — out (Inactive)
- B. Mlacic — out (Inactive)
- J. Ngakia — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Grieves — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Bove — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Akomeah — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Boadu — out (Injury)
- O. H. Traore — out (Injury)
- M. Bola — out (Hamstring Injury)
- K. Baah — out (Knock)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SwanseaWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Derby 3–0(xG 3.3–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Stoke City 2–1
WatfordDDWLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v West Ham 1–1(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Wrexham 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Southampton 2–1
- Sun 22 May · A v Chelsea 1–2
- Sun 15 May · H v Leicester 1–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Swansea have won 2 of their last 3.
- Swansea have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of Swansea's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Swansea's last 3.
- Swansea kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
- Watford have won 1 of their last 5.
- Watford have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Watford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Watford's last 5.
- Watford kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Swansea
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Watford
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea · Referee: Edward Duckworth, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- What is the team news for Swansea vs Watford?
- Swansea's reported absences and doubts include J. Key, B. Cabango, G. Franco, R. Stewart and 1 other. Watford's include J. Zemura, B. Mlacic, J. Ngakia, J. Grieves and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.