League One · Regular Season - 7
AFC WimbledonvMilton Keynes Dons
AFC Wimbledon
Milton Keynes Dons·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). AFC Wimbledon and Milton Keynes Dons finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| AFC / Mil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AFC Wimbledon down the side and Milton Keynes Dons across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 30%.
What we think
- Milton Keynes Dons38% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Milton Keynes Dons the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Milton Keynes Dons a 43% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Now: 30% home · 27% draw · 43% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Milton Keynes Dons
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AFC Wimbledon
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Milton Keynes Dons
Confirmed · 3-1-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AFC WimbledonWWLWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Doncaster 1–0
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Bromley 2–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Burton Albion 1–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Wigan 1–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Reading 0–0
Milton Keynes DonsDDLDD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Peterborough 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Wycombe 3–3
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Wigan 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Leicester 0–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Huddersfield 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AFC Wimbledon have won 3 of their last 5.
- AFC Wimbledon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5.
- AFC Wimbledon kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Milton Keynes Dons have won 0 of their last 5.
- Milton Keynes Dons have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Milton Keynes Dons's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Milton Keynes Dons's last 5.
- Milton Keynes Dons kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
AFC Wimbledon
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Milton Keynes Dons
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London · Referee: R. Eley
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- AFC Wimbledon line up in a 3-4-2-1, Milton Keynes Dons in a 3-1-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.