League One · Regular Season - 9
AFC WimbledonvStevenage
AFC Wimbledon
Stevenage·
0 – 0
1Headline
We expect
0–10.9–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–0 (15%), then 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%). AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage finish on some other score 56% of the time. We show 0–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| AFC / Ste | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AFC Wimbledon down the side and Stevenage across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Stevenage36% · Match result
- Under 2.559% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Stevenage the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 41%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AFC Wimbledon
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Stevenage
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AFC WimbledonDDWWL
- Sat 26 Sep · A v Cambridge United 1–1
- Thu 17 Sep · H v Milton Keynes Dons 0–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Doncaster 1–0
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Bromley 2–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Burton Albion 1–4
StevenageLWWDD
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Leyton Orient 0–1
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Luton 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Barnsley 5–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Peterborough 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Doncaster 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AFC Wimbledon have won 2 of their last 5.
- AFC Wimbledon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5.
- AFC Wimbledon kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Stevenage have won 2 of their last 5.
- Stevenage have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Stevenage's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Stevenage's last 5.
- Stevenage kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
AFC Wimbledon
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Stevenage
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
- Our model makes Stevenage the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 41%, and under 2.5 at 59%.
- Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.