League One · Regular Season - 7
BarnsleyvLeicester
Barnsley
Leicester·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Barnsley and Leicester finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bar / Lei | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Barnsley down the side and Leicester across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 44%.
What we think
- Leicester41% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Leicester the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 65% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Leicester a 46% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 24% draw · 46% away
Now: 30% home · 24% draw · 46% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Barnsley
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Leicester
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BarnsleyLLWWD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Plymouth 0–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Stevenage 1–5
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Blackpool 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Leyton Orient 3–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Doncaster 0–0
LeicesterWLWDL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Stockport County 4–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Oxford United 0–4
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Plymouth 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Milton Keynes Dons 0–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Burton Albion 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Barnsley have won 2 of their last 5.
- Barnsley have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Barnsley's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Barnsley's last 5.
- Barnsley kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Leicester have won 2 of their last 5.
- Leicester have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Leicester's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Leicester's last 5.
- Leicester kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Barnsley
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Leicester
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Oakwell Ground, Barnsley · Referee: S. Stockbridge
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Barnsley vs Leicester?
- Our model makes Leicester the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in Barnsley vs Leicester?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Barnsley vs Leicester?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Barnsley vs Leicester?
- Barnsley line up in a 4-2-3-1, Leicester in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.