League One · Regular Season - 7
Burton AlbionvMansfield Town
Burton Albion
Mansfield Town·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.1–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Burton Albion and Mansfield Town finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Bur / Man | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Burton Albion down the side and Mansfield Town across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 26% against 29%.
What we think
- Mansfield Town39% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Mansfield Town the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Burton Albion the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Burton Albion a 40% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 28% draw · 33% away
Now: 40% home · 28% draw · 33% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Burton Albion
Confirmed · 3-5-2
No reported absences.
Mansfield Town
Confirmed · 3-1-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Burton AlbionLDWLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Oxford United 0–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Cambridge United 2–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v AFC Wimbledon 4–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Notts County 1–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Leicester 2–1
Mansfield TownDLLWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Huddersfield 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Bradford 0–1
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Reading 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Luton 5–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Peterborough 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Burton Albion have won 2 of their last 5.
- Burton Albion have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Burton Albion's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Burton Albion's last 5.
- Burton Albion kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Mansfield Town have won 1 of their last 5.
- Mansfield Town have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Mansfield Town's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Mansfield Town's last 5.
- Mansfield Town kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Burton Albion
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mansfield Town
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent · Referee: O. Mackey
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
- Our model makes Mansfield Town the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Burton Albion at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town?
- Burton Albion line up in a 3-5-2, Mansfield Town in a 3-1-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.