League One · Regular Season - 9
LutonvDoncaster
Luton
Doncaster·
0 – 0
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Luton and Doncaster finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lut / Don | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Luton down the side and Doncaster across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Luton61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Luton the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Luton
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Doncaster
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LutonLLDWL
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Bradford 0–1
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Stevenage 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Leyton Orient 1–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Stockport County 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Mansfield Town 2–5
DoncasterWLLDD
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Peterborough 2–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v AFC Wimbledon 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Plymouth 2–3
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Notts County 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Stevenage 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Luton have won 1 of their last 5.
- Luton have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Luton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Luton's last 5.
- Luton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Doncaster have won 1 of their last 5.
- Doncaster have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Doncaster's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Doncaster's last 5.
- Doncaster kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Luton
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Doncaster
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Kenilworth Road, Luton, Bedfordshire
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Luton vs Doncaster?
- Our model makes Luton the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Luton vs Doncaster?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Luton vs Doncaster?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.