League One · Regular Season - 9
ReadingvBradford
Reading
Bradford·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Reading and Bradford finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Rea / Bra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Reading down the side and Bradford across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 48%.
What we think
- Reading46% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Reading the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (48%).
For comparison, the market gives Reading a 42% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 28% draw · 30% away
Now: 42% home · 28% draw · 30% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Reading
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Bradford
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ReadingDWLWW
- Sat 26 Sep · A v Wycombe 2–2
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Notts County 2–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Cambridge United 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Blackpool 3–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Mansfield Town 5–0
BradfordWWWLL
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Luton 1–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Notts County 1–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Mansfield Town 1–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Cambridge United 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Plymouth 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Reading have won 3 of their last 5.
- Reading have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Reading's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Reading's last 5.
- Reading kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Bradford have won 3 of their last 5.
- Bradford have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Bradford's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Bradford's last 5.
- Bradford kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Reading
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bradford
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Select Car Leasing Stadium, Reading
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Reading vs Bradford?
- Our model makes Reading the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Reading vs Bradford?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Reading vs Bradford?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.