Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 7
LavalvSochaux
Laval
Sochaux·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Laval and Sochaux finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Lav / Soc | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Laval down the side and Sochaux across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 45% against 44%.
What we think
- Sochaux39% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sochaux the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Laval the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 30%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, which is what the market has it at too (44%).
For comparison, the market gives Laval a 40% chance. Our model makes it 31%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 29% draw · 29% away
Now: 40% home · 30% draw · 30% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Laval
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Laval
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Sochaux
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LavalLLLDW
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Dijon 2–3
- Fri 4 Sep · H v RED Star FC 93 1–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Grenoble 0–3
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Metz 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Nantes 2–1
SochauxWDDWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Nantes 1–0
- Fri 4 Sep · A v PAU 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Clermont Foot 0–0
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Guingamp 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v RED Star FC 93 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Laval have won 1 of their last 5.
- Laval have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Laval's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Laval's last 5.
- Laval kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Sochaux have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sochaux have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 0 of Sochaux's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Sochaux's last 5.
- Sochaux kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Laval
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sochaux
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval · Referee: Benoit Millot
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Laval vs Sochaux?
- Our model makes Sochaux the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Laval at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Laval vs Sochaux?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Laval vs Sochaux?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.