Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 7
MetzvSaint Etienne
Metz
Saint Etienne·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Metz and Saint Etienne finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Met / Sai | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Metz down the side and Saint Etienne across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 57%.
What we think
- Metz40% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Metz the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Saint Etienne the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 26%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (57%).
For comparison, the market gives Saint Etienne a 49% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 26% home · 25% draw · 49% away
Now: 26% home · 25% draw · 49% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Metz
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Saint Etienne
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MetzLWDDD
- Mon 14 Sep · A v RED Star FC 93 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Rodez 4–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Annecy 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Laval 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Grenoble 0–0
Saint EtienneLWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Dunkerque 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Montpellier 3–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Dijon 3–2
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Grenoble 4–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Clermont Foot 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Metz have won 1 of their last 5.
- Metz have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Metz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Metz's last 5.
- Metz kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Saint Etienne have won 4 of their last 5.
- Saint Etienne have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Saint Etienne's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Saint Etienne's last 5.
- Saint Etienne kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Metz have won 0, Saint Etienne 2, with 2 drawn.
- Metz W–D–L
- 0–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 4
- Both scored
- 3 of 4
- Metz 2–2 Saint Etienne
- Saint Etienne 2–1 Metz
- Saint Etienne 1–0 Metz
- Metz 1–1 Saint Etienne
7Context
Metz
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
Saint Etienne
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz · Referee: Leprodhomme·Tifenn
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Metz vs Saint Etienne?
- Our model makes Metz the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Saint Etienne at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Metz vs Saint Etienne?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Metz vs Saint Etienne?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Metz vs Saint Etienne?
- Metz line up in a 4-2-3-1, Saint Etienne in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Saint Etienne?
- In their last 4 meetings, Metz have won 0, Saint Etienne 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.