Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 7
PAUvDunkerque
PAU
Dunkerque·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.6–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). PAU and Dunkerque finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| PAU / Dun | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, PAU down the side and Dunkerque across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 60% against 52%.
What we think
- Dunkerque40% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Dunkerque the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes PAU the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 52% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives PAU a 42% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Now: 42% home · 27% draw · 31% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards PAU
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
PAU
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Dunkerque
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PAULDDLW
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Montpellier 0–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Sochaux 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Rodez 2–2
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Nancy 0–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Dijon 1–0
DunkerqueWDLLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Saint Etienne 2–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Clermont Foot 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Nancy 0–2
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Montpellier 0–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Reims 3–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- PAU have won 1 of their last 5.
- PAU have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of PAU's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of PAU's last 5.
- PAU kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Dunkerque have won 1 of their last 5.
- Dunkerque have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Dunkerque's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Dunkerque's last 5.
- Dunkerque kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
PAU
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Dunkerque
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nouste Camp, Pau · Referee: Brendan Roffet
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win PAU vs Dunkerque?
- Our model makes Dunkerque the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours PAU at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in PAU vs Dunkerque?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.