Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 12

PAUvNantes

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1Headline

We expect

1–21.1–1.7 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). PAU and Nantes finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, PAU goals down the side, Nantes across
PAU / Nan012345
06109520.7
161210520.8
2465310.4
312210.50.2
40.40.70.60.30.10.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, PAU down the side and Nantes across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 78%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 54%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 31%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Nantes50% · Match result
  • Over 2.554% · Goals
  • Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Nantes the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home25%vs—
Draw25%vs—
Away50%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.554%vs—
Under 2.546%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.578%vs—
Under 1.522%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.531%vs—
Under 3.569%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs—
No44%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

PAU

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Nantes

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

PAUWWWWW

  • Fri 30 Oct · A v Metz 3–1(xG 2.1–2.0)
  • Fri 23 Oct · H v Grenoble 2–1
  • Fri 16 Oct · A v Guingamp 2–1
  • Fri 9 Oct · H v Laval 3–2
  • Fri 18 Sep · H v Dunkerque 2–0

NantesDLLDW

  • Fri 30 Oct · H v Clermont Foot 1–1(xG 0.8–0.3)
  • Sat 24 Oct · A v Saint Etienne 0–1
  • Sat 17 Oct · H v Dunkerque 2–3
  • Sat 10 Oct · H v Reims 0–0
  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Boulogne 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

PAU
  • PAU have won 5 of their last 5.
  • PAU have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of PAU's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of PAU's last 5.
  • PAU kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Nantes
  • Nantes have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Nantes have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Nantes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Nantes's last 5.
  • Nantes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

PAU

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Nantes

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Nouste Camp, Pau

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win PAU vs Nantes?
Our model makes Nantes the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time.
How many goals are expected in PAU vs Nantes?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Nantes?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.