Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 6
RED Star FC 93vMetz
RED Star FC 93
Metz·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). RED Star FC 93 and Metz finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| RED / Met | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, RED Star FC 93 down the side and Metz across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 75% against 76%.
What we think
- Metz37% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Metz the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes RED Star FC 93 the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives RED Star FC 93 a 39% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Now: 39% home · 28% draw · 33% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from RED Star FC 93
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
RED Star FC 93
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Metz
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RED Star FC 93WLDDW
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Laval 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Reims 1–4
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Boulogne 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Sochaux 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Nantes 1–0
MetzWDDDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Rodez 4–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Annecy 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Laval 1–1
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Grenoble 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Guingamp 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- RED Star FC 93 have won 2 of their last 5.
- RED Star FC 93 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of RED Star FC 93's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of RED Star FC 93's last 5.
- RED Star FC 93 kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Metz have won 2 of their last 5.
- Metz have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Metz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Metz's last 5.
- Metz kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
RED Star FC 93
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Metz
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade Bauer, Paris - Saint-Ouen
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
- Our model makes Metz the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours RED Star FC 93 at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
- RED Star FC 93 line up in a 4-2-3-1, Metz in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.