Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 7
ReimsvMontpellier
Reims
Montpellier·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Reims and Montpellier finish on some other score 62% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Rei / Mon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Reims down the side and Montpellier across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 24% against 30%.
What we think
- Reims46% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Reims the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 51% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Reims a 45% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 25% draw · 22% away
Now: 45% home · 29% draw · 26% away
Moved −8pp — the market moved away from Reims
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Reims
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Montpellier
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ReimsWDWWD
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Nancy 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Guingamp 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v RED Star FC 93 4–1
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Annecy 3–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Dunkerque 3–3
MontpellierWLDWW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v PAU 1–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Saint Etienne 1–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Boulogne 0–0
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Dunkerque 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Nancy 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Reims have won 3 of their last 5.
- Reims have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Reims's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Reims's last 5.
- Reims kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Montpellier have won 3 of their last 5.
- Montpellier have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Montpellier's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Montpellier's last 5.
- Montpellier kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Reims have won 2, Montpellier 2, with 4 drawn.
- Reims W–D–L
- 2–4–2
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Montpellier 0–0 Reims
- Reims 4–2 Montpellier
- Reims 1–2 Montpellier
- Montpellier 1–3 Reims
- Reims 1–3 Montpellier
- Montpellier 1–1 Reims
- Montpellier 0–0 Reims
- Reims 3–3 Montpellier
7Context
Reims
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Montpellier
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims · Referee: Remi Landry
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Reims vs Montpellier?
- Our model makes Reims the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Reims vs Montpellier?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Reims vs Montpellier?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
- In their last 8 meetings, Reims have won 2, Montpellier 2, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.