Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 7
RodezvNancy
Rodez
Nancy·
3 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (11%), then 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Rodez and Nancy finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rod / Nan | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Rodez down the side and Nancy across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 51%.
What we think
- Rodez61% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Rodez
Best price 2.43 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 61% against a market price of 41% — 20 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 79% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- The price has moved 2.2% away from Rodez since it opened.
Our forecast makes Rodez the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 73%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Rodez a 41% chance. Our model makes it 61%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 27% draw · 31% away
Now: 41% home · 27% draw · 32% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Rodez
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Rodez
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Nancy
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RodezLLDWL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Grenoble 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Metz 1–4
- Fri 28 Aug · H v PAU 2–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nantes 5–2
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Annecy 0–2
NancyLLWWL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Reims 1–2
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Nantes 0–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Dunkerque 2–0
- Fri 21 Aug · A v PAU 1–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Montpellier 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Rodez have won 1 of their last 5.
- Rodez have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Rodez's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Rodez's last 5.
- Rodez kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Nancy have won 2 of their last 5.
- Nancy have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Nancy's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Nancy's last 5.
- Nancy kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Rodez
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nancy
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez · Referee: Gael Angoula
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Rodez vs Nancy?
- Our model makes Rodez the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Rodez vs Nancy?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Rodez vs Nancy?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.