2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
FC HeidenheimvHolstein Kiel
FC Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Hol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Heidenheim down the side and Holstein Kiel across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 43%.
What we think
- FC Heidenheim52% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: FC Heidenheim
Best price 2.33 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 42% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 2 meetings averaged 2.5 goals.
- The price has moved 2.9% away from FC Heidenheim since it opened.
Our forecast makes FC Heidenheim the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 65% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Heidenheim a 42% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 24% draw · 31% away
Now: 42% home · 25% draw · 33% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from FC Heidenheim
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Heidenheim
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Holstein Kiel
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC HeidenheimWWLWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–0(xG 0.9–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Dynamo Dresden 5–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Hertha Berlin 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · H v VfL Osnabrück 4–3
- Sat 16 May · H v FSV Mainz 05 0–2
Holstein KielDLDDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v 1. FC Nürnberg 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–2
- Fri 14 Aug · H v FC St. Pauli 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · A v SV Darmstadt 98 2–2
- Sat 17 May · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Heidenheim have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Heidenheim have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Heidenheim's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Heidenheim's last 5.
- FC Heidenheim kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Holstein Kiel have won 0 of their last 5.
- Holstein Kiel have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Holstein Kiel's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Holstein Kiel's last 5.
- Holstein Kiel kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, FC Heidenheim have won 1, Holstein Kiel 1, with 0 drawn.
- FC Heidenheim W–D–L
- 1–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- FC Heidenheim 3–1 Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel 1–0 FC Heidenheim
7Context
FC Heidenheim
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Holstein Kiel
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz · Referee: Justin Joel Hasmann, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- Our model makes FC Heidenheim the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- FC Heidenheim line up in a 4-4-2, Holstein Kiel in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
- In their last 2 meetings, FC Heidenheim have won 1, Holstein Kiel 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.