2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
FC HeidenheimvHolstein Kiel
FC Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Hol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Heidenheim down the side and Holstein Kiel across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- FC Heidenheim52% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes FC Heidenheim the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Heidenheim
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Holstein Kiel
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC HeidenheimWWLWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–0(xG 0.9–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Dynamo Dresden 5–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Hertha Berlin 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · H v VfL Osnabrück 4–3
- Sat 16 May · H v FSV Mainz 05 0–2
Holstein KielDLDDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v 1. FC Nürnberg 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–2
- Fri 14 Aug · H v FC St. Pauli 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · A v SV Darmstadt 98 2–2
- Sat 17 May · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Heidenheim have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Heidenheim have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Heidenheim's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Heidenheim's last 5.
- FC Heidenheim kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Holstein Kiel have won 0 of their last 5.
- Holstein Kiel have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Holstein Kiel's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Holstein Kiel's last 5.
- Holstein Kiel kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, FC Heidenheim have won 1, Holstein Kiel 1, with 0 drawn.
- FC Heidenheim W–D–L
- 1–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- FC Heidenheim 3–1 Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel 1–0 FC Heidenheim
7Context
FC Heidenheim
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Holstein Kiel
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- Our model makes FC Heidenheim the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the head-to-head record between FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
- In their last 2 meetings, FC Heidenheim have won 1, Holstein Kiel 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.