2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6
1. FC KaiserslauternvEintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Eintracht Braunschweig·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Eintracht Braunschweig finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| 1. / Ein | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, 1. FC Kaiserslautern down the side and Eintracht Braunschweig across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 34% against 39%.
What we think
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern56% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Best price 2.05 at BetanoThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 56% against a market price of 48% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Our forecast makes 1. FC Kaiserslautern the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, against the market’s 61% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 48% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Now: 48% home · 24% draw · 28% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Eintracht Braunschweig
Confirmed · 4-5-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
1. FC KaiserslauternLWWDD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v 1. FC Magdeburg 0–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v SV Darmstadt 98 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC St. Pauli 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Karlsruher SC 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v VfL Wolfsburg 0–0
Eintracht BraunschweigDLLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Dynamo Dresden 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v VfL Osnabrück 1–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Hertha Berlin 3–5
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Vfl Bochum 0–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v 1. FC Magdeburg 6–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 5.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1 of their last 5.
- Eintracht Braunschweig have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Eintracht Braunschweig's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Eintracht Braunschweig's last 5.
- Eintracht Braunschweig kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Eintracht Braunschweig
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern · Referee: Jarno Wienefeld, Germany
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
- Our model makes 1. FC Kaiserslautern the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern line up in a 3-4-2-1, Eintracht Braunschweig in a 4-5-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.